Your state-by-condition recognition research conducted by the You

Even with its restrictions, the brand new Vital Statistics gives the greatest available studies with which in order to imagine the latest national breakup speed during the 1990. S. Census Agency personnel suggests that marital events research on ACS and you can U.S. Important Analytics (including the DRA attempt) is actually comparable ( Elliott mais aussi al., 2010). Rates for much more the past several years commonly possible while the government government left behind the latest line of essential analytics on marriage ceremonies and divorces at condition peak for the 1996.

To make sure that all of our results are robust, i performed a supplemental investigation by the restricting the latest 2010 ACS data to simply the fresh DRA take to says whereby years from the duration of divorce case are advertised inside 1990. The outcome out of this extra study are practically same as those people in line with the entire nation, indicating your boost in this new breakup rates isn’t an enthusiastic artifact from and ACS data from all the claims.

Analytic Means

Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p

R esults

Due to the fact shown when you look at the Contour 1, the new separation rate features doubled given that 1990, ascending out-of 4.nine so you’re able to 10.step one divorced individuals each step one,000 married people. That it pattern belies the entire pattern on U.S. divorce price during this time, that has been fundamentally flat at the 19.0 in 1990 and 17.nine this current year (influence not revealed). The newest doubling of one’s price out-of separation and divorce one of middle-old and you can the elderly results in a hefty boost in new number of individuals old fifty and you will old exactly who feel separation and divorce. Within the 1990, as much as 206,007 anybody old fifty and you may older had divorced, while this current year on the 643,152 got divorced. So you’re able to contextualize so it pattern, thought one under one in ten people whom separated from inside the 1990 try aged fifty and earlier weighed against over 1 in the 4 now (influence maybe not found). In addition, of course, if the brand new breakup rates stays constant along the 2nd 2 decades-a conservative assumption according to the current pattern-how many people aged fifty and you will older who sense breakup into the 2030 do increase of the 1/3rd to over 828,380 (authors’ formula based on age-certain estimated population brands when you look at the 2030 [ U.S. Census Bureau, Pagadian hot women 2004]), highlighting the accelerating development in the fresh new elderly adult population which can exist along side second 20 years.